The message was very clear and non-diplomatic. And it served the exact purpose it was meant to serve. It was obvious that Barack Obama, the president of the United States, wanted the message to sink in. The United States, which gets about 9 per cent of its oil needs from Nigeria, Africa’s largest producer, would soon not need the commodity anymore. It has already cut its oil purchases from Nigeria by nearly 50 per cent. The country has been producing more oil lately due to its improved hydraulic fracking technology that makes it possible to produce oil and gas from shale rocks.
But if Obama intended the message to spur the Nigerian government into thinking, he was mistaken. The Jonathan government has declared to the world that there is no problem at all. Other countries would buy Nigeria’s oil if the United States didn’t. President Jonathan’s aide talked about other large buyers from Asia. But that only exposed the ignorance of those in charge of the country at the moment.
Thinking appears to be too much work for them and they behave as if they have no stake in the country. They do not appear to be under pressure at all in the light of Obama’s grim message. As far as they are concerned, it is Obama that has a problem. They are probably thinking that Obama is just jealous of them. This could have been a laughing matter if not that they are serious.
In the last few months, this column has tried strenuously to draw the attention of the Nigerian government to the coming world oil order. I have painted the picture as bleakly as possible because it is the nation’s life wire that is at issue here. I have talked about hydraulic fracking, a technology that the United States has perfected for loosening oil from shale rocks. I have also drawn the government’s attention to the coming danger if we do not act fast to steer the nation away from the near-total dependence on oil as our source of revenue.
This problem will be further compounded by the fact that there will soon be about 20 oil producers in Africa, which will ensure a glut and a consequent crashing of oil prices. And even though some people in Jonathan’s government talk of selling oil to China if the US is not going to be needing our oil, the truth is that they are only being too unschooled to know that China has more shale oil than the United States and Canada put together. India also has large quantities of shale oil while the UK has its own shale oil to last the next 47 years. That means that, before the turn of the decade, if Nigeria does not wake up from its deep slumber, we could become one of the poorest nations of the world.
But as I have said on this page several times in the past, this looming reality is only an opportunity for us to quickly develop other potential sources of income that we have. This is a very good time to take a hard look at agriculture. If Brazil is considered an agriculture superpower today, there is no reason Nigeria should not be in the same league. There is absolutely no reason. We have all it takes. It only costs good governance. We used to be far ahead of Indonesia and Malaysia in oil palm production. Today, we are not even nearly close. This is the time to regain lost grounds in the production of this strategic commodity that is increasingly becoming important to the world. And there is no reason we cannot displace the Sudan as the world’s leader in gum arabic. We probably even have better conditions for this. It will only take a good government to achieve this.
Nigeria would also become a very rich country if we knew exactly what to do with the vast mineral resources we have in every nook and cranny of the country. Every geopolitical zone has enough mineral resources to become stupendously wealthy. It only takes a thinking government.
A good government for Nigeria has now become a matter of life and death, considering the imminent end of oil as we know it. President Jonathan and his team clearly do not know what is about to happen. Nigeria is sleepwalking into a disaster, and Obama has told us that as bluntly as diplomatese would allow. That is why 2015 is so important for this country.
.... Sam Nda Isaiah
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